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Latest Investment Return Assumptions

Investment Return Assumption by Plan

Rates reflect all known announced rates as of July 2026. The footnotes at the bottom of the page, which reflect additional explanations, qualifications, and scheduled future developments for certain plans, are a critical component of this data set.


Plan                                                                         		 Rate (%) Plan Rate (%)
Alabama ERS                                               7.45 Montana PERS 7.30
Alabama Teachers 7.45 Montana Teachers 7.30
Alaska PERS 7.25 Nebraska Schools6 6.90
Alaska Teachers 7.25 Nevada Police Officer and Firefighter 7.25
Arizona Public Safety Personnel1 7.20 Nevada Regular Employees 7.25
Arizona SRS 7.0 New Hampshire Retirement System 6.75
Arkansas PERS 7.0 New Jersey PERS 7.0
Arkansas State Highway ERS 7.50 New Jersey Police & Fire 7.0
Arkansas Teachers 7.25 New Jersey Teachers 7.0
California PERF 6.80 New Mexico PERA 7.25
California Teachers 7.0 New Mexico Teachers 7.0
Chicago Teachers 6.50 New York City ERS 7.0
City of Austin ERS 6.75 New York City Teachers 7.0
Colorado Affiliated Local 7.0 New York State Teachers 6.95
Colorado Fire & Police Statewide 7.0 North Carolina Local Government 6.50
Colorado Municipal 7.25 North Carolina Teachers and State Employees 6.50
Colorado School 7.25 North Dakota PERS 6.50
Colorado State 7.25 North Dakota Teachers 7.15
Connecticut SERS 6.90 NY State & Local ERS 5.90
Connecticut Teachers 6.90 NY State & Local Police & Fire 5.90
Contra Costa County 6.75 Ohio Highway Patrol  7.25
DC Police & Fire 6.25 Ohio PERS 6.90
DC Teachers 6.25 Ohio Police & Fire 7.50
Delaware State Employees 7.0 Ohio School Employees 7.0
Denver Employees 7.0 Ohio Teachers 7.0
Denver Public Schools 7.25 Oklahoma PERS 6.50
Fairfax County Schools 7.0 Oklahoma Teachers 7.0
Florida RS 6.70 Orange County ERS 7.0
Georgia ERS 7.0 Oregon PERS 6.90
Georgia Teachers 6.90 Pennsylvania School Employees 7.0
Hawaii ERS 7.0 Pennsylvania State ERS 6.875
Houston Firefighters 7.0 Phoenix ERS 7.0
Idaho PERS 6.50 Rhode Island ERS 7.0
Illinois Municipal 7.25 Rhode Island Municipal 7.0
Illinois SERS 6.75 Richmond Retirement System 7.0
Illinois Teachers 7.0 San Diego City  6.50
Illinois Universities 6.50 San Diego County 6.50
Indiana PERF 6.50 San Francisco City & County 7.20
Indiana Teachers 6.50 South Carolina Police 7.0
Iowa PERS 7.0 South Carolina RS 7.0
Kansas PERS 7.0 South Dakota RS 6.50
Kentucky County 6.50 St. Louis School Employees 7.0
Kentucky ERS2 5.25 St. Paul Teachers 7.0
Kentucky Teachers 7.10 Texas County & District 7.50
LA County ERA 7.0 Texas ERS 7.0
Louisiana Parochial Employees 6.40 Texas LECOS 7.0
Louisiana SERS3 7.25 Texas Municipal 6.75
Louisiana Teachers4 7.25 Texas Teachers 7.0
Maine Local 6.50 TN Political Subdivisions 6.75
Maine State and Teacher 6.50 TN State and Teachers 6.75
Maryland PERS 6.80 University of California 6.75
Maryland Teachers 6.80 Utah Noncontributory 6.85
Massachusetts SERS 7.0 Vermont State Employees 7.0
Massachusetts Teachers 7.0 Vermont Teachers 7.0
Michigan Municipal5 6.79 Virginia Retirement System 6.75
Michigan Public Schools 6.0 Washington LEOFF Plan 1 7.25
Michigan SERS 6.0 Washington LEOFF Plan 2 7.0
Minnesota PERF 7.0 Washington PERS 1 7.25
Minnesota State Employees 7.0 Washington PERS 2/3 7.25
Minnesota Teachers 7.0 Washington School Employees Plan 2/3 7.25
Mississippi PERS 7.0 Washington Teachers Plan 1 7.25
Missouri DOT and Highway Patrol 6.50 Washington Teachers Plan 2/3 7.25
Missouri Local 7.0 West Virginia PERS 7.25
Missouri PEERS 7.30 West Virginia Teachers 7.25
Missouri State Employees 6.95 Wisconsin Retirement System 6.80
Missouri Teachers 7.30 Wyoming Retirement System  6.80

 

Download latest return assumptions

  1. The Arizona Public Safety Personnel Retirement System administers a plan for public safety personnel comprised of three tiers depending on participants' date of hire. The assumption used for Tiers 1 & 2 is 7.2%, and the assumption used for Tier 3 is 7.0%. The assumption given reflects a liability-weighted average for all tiers.

  2. The Kentucky ERS is composed of two plans: Hazardous and Non-Hazardous. The rate shown applies to the plan’s Non-Hazardous plan, which accounts for more than 90 percent of the Kentucky ERS plan liabilities. The investment return assumption used for the Hazardous plan is 6.25 percent.

  3. The discount rate used to determine the FY 2022/2023 funding requirement is 7.25%, which is net of gain-sharing. The investment return assumption differs from the discount rate because of the effective cost of providing potential future ad hoc post-retirement benefit increases, or gain-sharing. The investment return assumption, which includes gain-sharing, is currently 7.60%.

  4. The investment return assumption differs from the discount rate because of the effective cost of providing potential future ad hoc post-retirement benefit increases, or gain-sharing. The investment return assumption, which includes gain-sharing, is currently 7.60%.

  5. In February 2022 the MERS Board adopted a dedicated gains policy for systematically reducing the investment return assumption when actual investment returns exceed the plan's current assumed rate of return. Whether the assumed rate of return is lowered, and the magnitude of any reduction, depends on the excess gains available and the most recent range of reasonable economic assumptions as provided by MERS' consulting actuary. Under this policy a portion of the excess returns will continue to be smoothed over a five year period, and some of the excess return will be immediately recognized to offset the increase in contributions. 

    • If the current assumed rate of return is at or above the mid-point in the range, the full amount of excess gains will be used to lower the assumption. If the current assumed rate of return is below the mid-point in the range, half of the excess gains will be used to lower the assumption. 

    • The assumed rate of return will not be reduced below the bottom of the range

    • If the ratio of Actuarial Value of Assets to Market Value of Assets is below 80% or above 120%, excess market gains will not be used to lower or buy down the rate of return, and the normal smoothing method will be applied. ​

  6. The Nebraska Schools investment return assumption will be reduced gradually from the previous rate of 7.0%, as follows: to 6.95% beginning January 1, 2025, to 6.90% beginning January 1, 2026, to 6.85% beginning January 1, 2027, and to 6.75% beginning January 1, 2028 and thereafter.

 

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Becoming a member of NASRA offers a unique opportunity to join a community committed to the sound, efficient, and innovative stewardship of public retirement systems. Membership connects you with a network of professionals and experts, providing valuable insights into managing public retirement systems with a focus on sustainability and risk-averse strategies.

By joining NASRA, you gain the tools and resources to enhance the management of public retirement systems, ensuring their long-term success and reliability for generations to come.

What’s New at NASRA: Public Pension Plan Investment Return Assumptions

NASRA’s 2026 update on public pension investment return assumptions finds that assumed rates have largely stabilized following more than a decade of steady reductions. Every one of the 132 plans in NASRA’s dataset has lowered its investment return assumption at least once since FY 2009, bringing the average assumption down from 7.94 percent in FY 2009 to 6.91 percent in FY 2025. 

The assumption is especially important because investment earnings provide most of the long-term revenue used to fund public pension benefits. Over the 30 years ending in 2024, investment earnings accounted for nearly 59 percent of public pension fund revenues. While annual investment results can vary widely, longer-term performance has generally met or exceeded current assumptions: median annualized returns for the five-, 10-, 20- and 30-year periods ending in 2025 were all above the current 7.0 percent median assumption. The updated brief explains how plans establish and review return assumptions and why inflation, projected asset-class returns, and a long-term investment horizon are central to that process.