National Association of State Retirement Administrators


Stress Testing

Risk Measurement Among Public Pension Plans

For a public pension plan, a stress test is an analysis or simulation designed to measure the effect on the plan of various projected—particularly adverse—investment and actuarial events.

No consensus exists regarding the factors or processes that constitute a stress test. A stress test essentially is a more extreme version of a risk assessment, something that most public pension plans, particularly larger plans, have conducted for years, although typically not labeled a "stress test." For example, actuarial valuations and asset-liability studies, which virtually all plans conduct periodically, are relatively simple methods for measuring risk.

Typical Factors Included in a Public Pension Stress Test

Factors a public pension stress test may measure include, but are not limited to:
 
Inputs Outputs
  • Investment returns
  • Required plan costs
  • above and below projections
  • Volatility
  • randomly assigned
  • Assets
  • Contributions
  • Liabilities
  • sufficient
  • Funding level
  • insufficient
  • Amortization period(s)
  • Demographic experience
  • Cash flow
  • Inflation
 
  • Asset allocation
  


Other Forms of Risk Measurement Among Public Pension Plans

New GASB standards, Statements 67 and 68, require plans to calculate and report their funding level based on a projected investment return of plus and minus one percent; this also is a basic measure of risk.

Public Pension Stress Testing Criteria and Results

Public pension stress testing, sometimes referred to as a risk assessment, is required by statute in some states, while other systems perform them via their own volition, without a statutory requirement. The factors and methods used to conduct stress tests and risk assessments vary. Below are listed some examples of these factors and methodologies.

CalPERS

CalSTRS

Connecticut

Hawaii

Virginia

Washington

Other Resources