National Association of State Retirement Administrators


Stress Testing

Risk Measurement Among Public Pension Plans

For a public pension plan, a stress test is an analysis or simulation designed to measure the effect on the plan of various projected—particularly adverse—investment and actuarial events.

No consensus exists regarding the factors or processes that constitute a stress test. A stress test essentially is a more extreme version of a risk assessment, something that most public pension plans, particularly larger plans, have conducted for years, although typically not labeled a "stress test." For example, actuarial valuations and asset-liability studies, which virtually all plans conduct periodically, are relatively simple methods for measuring risk.

Typical Factors Included in a Public Pension Stress Test
Factors a public pension stress test may measure include, but are not limited to:
 

Inputs

Outputs

  • Investment returns

  • Required plan costs

  • above and below projections

  • Volatility

  • randomly assigned

  • Assets

  • Contributions

  • Liabilities

  • sufficient

  • Funding level

  • insufficient

  • Amortization period(s)

  • Demographic experience

  • Cash flow

  • Inflation

  • Asset allocation

  


Other Forms of Risk Measurement Among Public Pension Plans

New GASB standards, Statements 67 and 68, require plans to calculate and report their funding level based on a projected investment return of plus and minus one percent; this also is a basic measure of risk. And some public pension plans conduct periodic risk management tests or assessments. Examples of such assessments include:

Public Pension Stress Tests Required By Statute

Statutes in some states direct plans to conduct stress tests, and below are listed tetirement systems affected by these statutes. The requirements of these stress test vary.

Other Resources